How VAR Has Changed Football — and What It Means for Score Predictions

Few innovations in football have sparked as much debate as the Video Assistant Referee. Since its introduction, VAR has overturned thousands of decisions, shifted the balance of power in matches, and fundamentally changed the way goals are scored — and disallowed. For anyone running a score prediction league, understanding how VAR has altered the shape of the modern game is no longer optional. It's essential.

A Brief History of VAR

VAR was first trialled in a competitive senior match on 21 September 2016, during a Dutch KNVB Cup tie. After a series of tests, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) formally approved its inclusion in the Laws of the Game in March 2018.

The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia was the first World Cup to use VAR, and it made an immediate impact — with 29 incidents reviewed and 20 decisions changed during the tournament. From there, adoption accelerated across the world's top leagues:

The Premier League was the last of Europe's "Big Five" leagues to adopt the technology — and, fittingly, has remained the most sceptical. To this day, Sweden's Allsvenskan remains the only top-30 European league without VAR, after a majority of clubs voted against it in 2024.

The Numbers: How VAR Has Changed the Game

The data tells a story that might surprise you. A meta-analysis examining over 9,000 matches across 20 competitions found no statistically significant change in the total number of goals scored per match after VAR was introduced. The game hasn't suddenly become higher or lower scoring — but the way goals happen has shifted.

VAR officials monitoring multiple camera angles during a Saudi Pro League match

Penalties

Across Europe's top five leagues, penalties awarded have risen by 12% since VAR's introduction. La Liga has seen the most dramatic increase at 32.7%, driven by VAR spotting fouls and handballs that referees previously missed. Penalty conversion rates have also climbed — in the Premier League, the save rate dropped from 19.1% to just 11.7% over four seasons, suggesting that the pressure and delay of a VAR-awarded penalty may actually benefit the taker.

Goals Disallowed

In VAR's first Premier League season (2019–20), a staggering 56 goals were disallowed through VAR intervention, while only 27 were awarded — a net loss of 29 goals. By 2021–22, the system had balanced out, with 47 goals awarded and 43 disallowed. The lesson? VAR started as a goal-killer, but rule changes and improved implementation have made it more even-handed.

Home Advantage

Perhaps the most significant finding: VAR has reduced home advantage. Research across 41 leagues in 26 countries found that VAR adoption increased goals scored by away teams, rather than decreasing home goals. The likely reason? Referees are less influenced by home crowds when they know every decision can be reviewed.

VAR at the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico brought VAR controversies to the biggest stage once again. Argentina's Round of 16 clash with Egypt generated the most outrage, when VAR erased a crucial Egyptian goal due to a foul in the buildup. Egypt manager Hossam Hassan accused FIFA of protecting Lionel Messi and Argentina, and the Egyptian Football Association filed a formal complaint alleging inconsistent use of VAR.

Germany vs. Paraguay also saw a key goal disallowed when VAR ruled that Jonathan Tah's teammate had illegally impeded the goalkeeper — despite the contact appearing minimal. These incidents reignited the debate over whether football has become too dependent on forensic analysis, with some arguing that VAR has removed the raw emotion and spontaneity that make the sport special.

In response, FIFA announced plans for further VAR updates, including faster review times and greater transparency in communicating decisions to fans in the stadium.

What VAR Means for Your Score Predictions

If you play in a prediction league — or you're thinking of starting one — VAR should change the way you think about scorelines. Here's how:

1. Expect more penalties. With penalties up 12% across Europe's top leagues, predicting a 1–0 or 2–1 scoreline with a penalty goal is more realistic than ever. Matches that might have ended goalless in the pre-VAR era now often feature a late spot kick.

2. Be cautious with clean sheets. VAR can award penalties for incidents the on-field referee missed entirely. A team can defend brilliantly for 89 minutes and still concede from a reviewed handball. If you're predicting a clean sheet, factor in the VAR risk.

3. Late volatility is real. Research shows that a VAR decision in the first 10 minutes barely shifts the game's trajectory, but a second-half overturn can send shockwaves through the match. Late VAR decisions — whether disallowed goals or awarded penalties — are the prediction league player's nightmare, and there's no way to plan for them other than to accept they'll happen.

4. Away teams are more dangerous. With home advantage reduced by VAR, away wins and draws are marginally more likely than they were a decade ago. Don't default to home wins in your predictions — the data suggests a more level playing field.

5. Scorelines cluster differently. The slight increase in penalties and reduction in incorrectly awarded goals means that 1–1 and 2–1 remain the most common scorelines, but the pathways to those scores have changed. More goals now come from the penalty spot, fewer from marginal offside positions.

Love It or Hate It, VAR Is Here to Stay

VAR isn't perfect. It still produces agonising waits, controversial decisions, and moments where technology seems to work against the spirit of the game. But it has also corrected genuine injustices, reduced referee bias, and brought a new layer of accuracy to the world's most popular sport.

For prediction league players, the message is clear: the old intuitions don't quite apply any more. Factor in the VAR effect — more penalties, fewer incorrect goals, reduced home advantage — and you'll give yourself an edge over anyone still predicting like it's 2015.

Sources

This post was researched using the following sources:

• How VAR has changed the Premier League, from penalties to offside and handball — ESPN
• How VAR decisions have affected every Premier League club in 2024-25 — ESPN
• VAR's Impact on Europe's Top 5 Leagues — Spreadex
• Meta-analysis of the effects of VAR on goals scored and home advantage in football — SAGE Journals
• Does VAR reduce referee bias? — SAGE Journals
• World Cup 2026 VAR Controversies Explained — JudgeMate
• Video Assistant Referees Explained — Premier League
• History of VAR — Premier League

Cover image: Referee Baldomero Toledo checks VAR, SounderBruce via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Inline image: VAR and AVAR officials, Niko4it via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.