Every World Cup has one. A team nobody tipped, a run nobody predicted, a story that writes itself. In 2022 it was Morocco, tearing through Spain and Portugal to reach the semi-finals. In 2018 it was Croatia, riding their luck all the way to the final. The 2026 World Cup — the biggest ever, with 48 teams across three host nations — is tailor-made for dark horses.
Here are the ten teams most likely to cause an upset in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
1. Norway
Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
It is hard to call a team featuring Erling Haaland a dark horse, but Norway have not been at a World Cup since 1998. Their return has been emphatic. In qualifying, they topped their European group with a perfect record — eight wins from eight, 37 goals scored, just five conceded. That included a stunning 4–1 victory away to Italy in Milan, a result that announced Norway as genuine contenders.
Haaland marked his World Cup debut with a brace against Iraq in Boston, taking his international record to 57 goals in 51 caps. Behind him, Martin Ødegaard — fresh from an Arsenal Champions League final — pulls the strings, while Alexander Sørloth and Oscar Bobb offer quality in depth.
The test gets stiffer with Senegal and France still to come, but this is a squad built to hurt anyone.
| Player | Club | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | Striker |
| Martin Ødegaard | Arsenal | Attacking midfielder |
| Alexander Sørloth | Atlético Madrid | Striker |
| Oscar Bobb | Manchester City | Winger |
2. Colombia
Group K: Portugal, Colombia, Congo DR, Uzbekistan
Luis Díaz has had the season of his life at Bayern Munich — 26 goals and 19 assists across all competitions — and Colombia arrive at their first World Cup since 2018 with a point to prove. They were a penalty shootout away from winning the 2024 Copa América, and have only improved since.
James Rodríguez, now 34 and playing in MLS with Minnesota United, captains the side in what may be his final tournament. His seven assists in qualifying led all of CONMEBOL. The midfield pivot of Jefferson Lerma and Richard Ríos provides steel behind the creativity, while Jhon Arias adds another threat from the right.
Colombia finished third in South American qualifying with 28 goals — second only to Argentina. Do not be surprised if they top a group that includes Portugal.
3. Morocco
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
At what point do we stop calling Morocco a dark horse? They reached the semi-finals in Qatar in 2022, beating Spain and Portugal along the way. Walid Regragui's side won all eight of their qualifying matches to reach 2026, and they have already shown their mettle — holding Brazil to a 1–1 draw in their opening match, with Ismael Saibari scoring on the counter-attack.
The defensive structure that frustrated Europe's elite in Qatar remains intact. Morocco are organised, physical, and utterly fearless against bigger names. Scotland and Haiti are unlikely to trouble them, meaning a second-round clash as group winners is the minimum expectation.
World Cup 2026
PREDICT WITH YOUR MATES
Create a private league, invite friends and see who really knows football. Free on iOS.
4. Ecuador
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao
Ecuador's qualifying campaign was a masterclass in defensive football. In 18 CONMEBOL matches, they conceded just five goals and kept 13 clean sheets — the best defensive record on the continent. They finished second, ahead of Brazil and Uruguay, despite starting with a three-point administrative deduction.
Moisés Caicedo is the engine. The Chelsea midfielder ranked in the top five per cent of Premier League midfielders for interceptions, successful passes, and touches last season. Behind him, Piero Hincapié (Arsenal), Willian Pacho (PSG), and Joel Ordóñez (Club Brugge) form a back line that would not look out of place at any club in Europe.
The attack is modest — 36-year-old captain Enner Valencia leads the line in likely his final World Cup — but teenager Kendry Páez represents the future. Ecuador do not need to outscore you. They just need to stop you scoring.
5. Japan
Group G: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Japan have made the round of 16 in each of the last two World Cups and came within minutes of the quarter-finals in Qatar. This time, they want more.
Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) led the team in goals and assists during qualifying, while Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord) arrived in form after 26 goals in all competitions at club level. Japan's tactical identity has shifted under coach Hajime Moriyasu — away from slow possession build-up and towards an aggressive, high-pressing system that has caused problems for elite European opposition.
They have already shown their quality in the tournament, coming from behind twice to draw 2–2 with the Netherlands in their opener. A squad featuring players from Real Sociedad, Feyenoord, Crystal Palace, and Parma is no longer the plucky underdog of old.
6. Switzerland
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland have made the round of 16 at the last three World Cups and reached the Euro 2024 quarter-finals, where they took England to penalties. Captain Granit Xhaka, now at Sunderland and earning his 144th cap, remains the heartbeat of a disciplined, well-coached side under Murat Yakin.
In qualifying, they conceded just two goals in six matches — tied with Spain for the best defensive record in Europe. Group B is favourable, with Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia and Herzegovina all beatable, and the Swiss have the experience and structure to progress deep into the knockout rounds.
Manuel Akanji (Inter), Denis Zakaria (Monaco), and Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) provide quality across the spine.
7. Mexico
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa
Co-hosts Mexico have home advantage for the first time since 1986 — and the last time they hosted, they reached the quarter-finals. They opened the tournament with a 2–0 win over South Africa at the Estadio Azteca, with Julián Quiñones and veteran Raúl Jiménez both on the scoresheet.
Mexico's quarter-final hoodoo is well documented — they have exited at that stage in seven consecutive World Cups. But they would not face a match away from home soil until the quarter-finals themselves, and that is a significant advantage in a tournament spread across 16 cities and three time zones.
8. South Korea
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa
The 2002 semi-finalists have started brightly, beating the Czech Republic 2–1 in Guadalajara after falling behind. Oh Hyeon-gyu scored the winner, and South Korea's high-energy, counter-pressing approach caused constant problems.
South Korea have a habit of exceeding expectations at World Cups — and in a group without one of the traditional heavyweights, they have a genuine chance of topping the table. If they beat Mexico in their next match, they will be one of the stories of the group stage.
9. Senegal
Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
Senegal find themselves in a brutal group alongside France and Norway, but this is their fourth consecutive World Cup appearance and they have the quality to compete. They qualified with a defence that conceded just 0.30 goals per match, and their midfield pairing of Pape Matar Sarr and Lamine Camara offers both energy and technical quality.
The opening 3–1 defeat to France was a setback, but Senegal showed they could hurt Les Bleus — and matches against Iraq and Norway will determine whether they can progress. They have upset bigger teams before.
10. Côte d'Ivoire
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao
The 2024 Africa Cup of Nations champions arrive at the World Cup with momentum and pace to burn. Côte d'Ivoire possess the kind of raw athleticism and attacking quality that can punish slow defensive transitions — exactly the kind of opponents that Germany and Ecuador would rather not face in the group stage.
At +25000 odds to win the tournament, nobody expects them to lift the trophy. But a round of 32 place is well within reach, and a single upset result could send them through.
The Dark Horse Formula
What connects these ten teams? It is not star power — though several have genuine world-class talent. It is structure. The best dark horses at major tournaments are teams with a clear tactical identity, a reliable defensive shape, and one or two match-winners who can produce moments of brilliance when it matters.
The expanded 48-team format plays into their hands, too. With the top two from each group advancing automatically, plus the eight best third-placed teams, there are more routes into the knockout rounds than ever. A single draw against a group favourite can be enough. The margins are razor-thin — and that is where the upsets live.
World Cup 2026
PREDICT WITH YOUR MATES
Create a private league, invite friends and see who really knows football. Free on iOS.
Sources
This post was researched using the following sources:
- 2026 FIFA World Cup dark horses — Yahoo Sports
- World Cup 2026 Dark Horse Analysis — CupIndex
- 4 World Cup Dark-Horse Teams — FOX Sports
- 2026 World Cup rankings 48-1 — NBC Sports
- Norway at the World Cup 2026 — UEFA.com
- Haaland double powers Norway to winning start — France 24
- Colombia World Cup squad — ESPN
- Ecuador World Cup 2026 preview — World Soccer Talk
- Japan World Cup 2026 preview — World Soccer Talk
- Switzerland at the World Cup 2026 — UEFA.com
- Brazil 1–1 Morocco — Yahoo Sports
- South Korea 2–1 Czechia — Yahoo Sports
Cover image: Erling Haaland in action for Norway, June 2025, MichaelEmilio via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.